Tuesday, September 10, 2019

I'll believe in it when the people telling me about it start acting like they believe in it...

Over at Silicone Graybeard, some frank comments on This Article at Watts Up With That:


"When plots of future temperatures are presented, you usually get what's on the left.  A model showing smoothly increasing measured temperatures.  If the uncertainties are included, errors propagated forward in time, and other standard techniques employed, you get the rescaled plot on the right.  The prediction for the temperature at 2100 isn't that global temperature goes up 4 degrees; it's 4 degrees +22 and -15.  When the uncertainty is 10 times your prediction, your prediction isn't worth much. "

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