The NERC analysis for Summer, 2025. There are... concerns. I would not expect these concerns to get much play time in the media because they can't be blamed on the right people. Yet.
Without pointing fingers and growling, I see clearly that we've lost a large amount of reliable generation and attempted to replace it with chronically unreliable generation. At the same time our society demand for electricity is rising faster than ever before.
From the viewpoint of a fat old retired teacher with a bum heart, there is not one thing I can do to effect the grand scheme. What I can do is give thought to my family and home, and how we might weather the possible issues. Resources (money) are slim to none on the home front, but sometimes careful planning and forethought can replace resources (money).
- Security
- Livable shelter
- Food and water
- Medical issues
- Comfort and sanity
Each of these points needs consideration, as they do every other day in a families life. Sometimes more consideration, and different thinking, depending on challenges and odds.
Is a loss of electricity a high, medium, or low probability event? Looking at reports like this, news reports (for what little they are worth), current events, and history of living here, I place odds at 5-10% for multi-day regional outages, perhaps 20% for single day outages of whatever cause (Weather, increased demand, generation failure, etc.), and nearly 100% for short term outages.
Short term and single day outages are not uncommon already, and our lives are constructed to barely notice them. They have nearly zero impact on our lifestyle and comfort. Our daily habits make that so already. We leave the fridge/freezer closed, switch to alternative cooking/heat/lights/etc, and get out the old fashioned family entertainment.
A multi-day long term outage? That was at best a once per decade event in our home. Given recent reports and an eye on our electric generation situation, the odds are trending up in my mind. We are mostly ready for one, but 100%? Not quite.
A long term outage is when the more basic issues become more serious. Water... how much do we have and where is it? Yes, we may lose some food, but we will eat really well while we do, before we switch to storage and pantry goods. Meds that need refrigeration? Okay for a few weeks. Might be an issue after that. Security? We have good neighbors, but only 15 minutes away is a small city filled with people who live day to day and have no preparations at all. I'm not expecting a mad max cannibal situation after a week of no power, but we'll likely move the chickens inside and keep a watch over the garden.
There's time to think now about how we can react to those low-probability high-impact situations. There may not be time to think much, or do much, in the middle of an event.
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