How am I doing? Well, I survived all these predicted TEOTWAWKI events. Tomorrow looks pretty good too.
**Failed Environmental and Climate Predictions**
* **1967**: Predictions of a "dire famine" by 1975.
* **1968**: Paul Ehrlich predicted "hundreds of millions will starve" in the 1970s–1980s and that "England will not exist in the year 2000."
* **1969**: Claims that everyone would "disappear in a cloud of blue steam" by 1989.
* **1970**: Predictions of a new ice age by 2000; America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.
* **1972**: The Club of Rome "Limits to Growth" report predicted civilization collapse by the mid-21st century.
* **1980s**: EPA and media forecasts that acid rain would turn North American lakes sterile and forests dead; Ehrlich claimed half of all species would be extinct by 2000.
* **1988**: James Hansen forecasted regional drought in the 1990s; predictions that Washington DC would have 85 days over 90°F; Maldives would be underwater in 30 years; and rising seas would "obliterate" nations by 2000.
* **2004–2008**: Forecasts that Britain would have a Siberian climate by 2020; the Arctic would be ice-free by 2013–2018; and the West Side Highway in NYC would be underwater by 2008.
* **2019**: Statements by AOC and Greta Thunberg that the world would end in 12 years or five years respectively if climate change was not addressed; UNEP reported one million species face extinction.
**Nuclear War and Conflict Risks**
* **1950**: Leo Szilard suggested a cobalt bomb could render the planet unlivable; 19% of Americans believed a world war would mean "an end to mankind."
* **1982**: Brian Martin estimated a US–Soviet nuclear exchange could kill 400–450 million directly, plus hundreds of millions more from follow-up consequences.
* **1983**: The Able Archer incident was identified as one of the most dangerous Cold War episodes, with Soviet forces fearing a masked nuclear attack.
* **2008**: A Future of Humanity Institute survey estimated a 4% probability of extinction from warfare by 2100, with a 1% chance from nuclear warfare.
* **2010s–2020s**: Studies on regional nuclear wars (e.g., India-Pakistan) predict global cooling of 1.8°C for 5–10 years, ozone depletion, and a "nuclear famine" threatening up to two billion people.
* **2022**: Forecasting tournaments estimated a 4.7% chance nuclear weapons kill more than a tenth of humanity before 2100, and a 0.08% chance of extinction.
* **2026**: A Lancet assessment identifies nuclear war and malicious AI use as major threats to humanity by 2100.
**Biological, Technological, and Other Existential Risks**
* **1962**: Rachel Carson’s *Silent Spring* raised awareness of environmental catastrophe.
* **1986**: Eric Drexler proposed the "grey goo" scenario of self-replicating nanobots consuming all biological matter, though he later walked back the extreme plausibility.
* **2016**: Global Challenges Foundation identified nuclear war, pandemics, and catastrophic climate change as significant ongoing risks, with emerging tech risks growing.
* **2021**: IPCC reports warned Earth could hit the 1.5°C warming threshold within 20 years; "code red for humanity" warnings were issued.
* **2026**: Recent assessments highlight a "polycrisis" where climate change, nuclear weapons, AI, and ecological collapse interact. Threats include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, and engineered pandemics, with nuclear conflict and AI malicious use cited as top existential dangers.
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